After four bloody years, the war on Ukraine might be turning into Putin's undoing | Rajan Menon

"When the president, Vladimir Putin, invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, he didn't anticipate a fight that would last longer than the Red Army's epic struggle against the Wehrmacht. But his war drags on. Worse, it's failing and threatening his grip on power. Despite Putin's boasts about Russian troops advancing on every front, even pro-war military bloggers are criticising military mismanagement. Some say the momentum favours Ukraine and at least one warns that Russia could lose."

"With the frontline stalled, an estimated 1.3 million Russian troops dead or wounded, and ordinary Russians under increasing economic pressure, the war Putin believed would produce his crowning achievement may prove to be his undoing. For Russians, the war was once something that happened over there. Now it's happening inside Russia itself. Ukraine's drones and missiles routinely hit targets deep inside the country often more than 1,000 miles from the border."

"They include Moscow, Yekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk, Perm, Rostov-on-Don, Yaroslavl, Murmansk and the Baltic Sea oil-loading ports at Primorsk and Ust-Luga. The refineries at Tuapse, on the Black Sea's northern coastline, and Yaroslavl have been set ablaze repeatedly. Ukrainian drones have also caused numerous airport closures and flight delays across Russia. Ukraine's relentless drone attacks forced Putin to pare back Saturday's military parade."

"In a phone call with Donald Trump on 29 April, Putin floated the idea of a three-day ceasefire from 9 May to avoid the humiliation of a Ukrainian attack on Red Square. The Ukraine president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, later accepted the proposal at Trump's urging, especially because a prisoner exchange was included, but he didn't allow Putin to avoid embarrassment completely: his official ceasefire decree exempted Red Square from attack, but not"

Russia held its annual Victory Day parade to honor sacrifices from World War II, but the Ukraine war has lasted far longer than expected and is failing. Even pro-war military voices criticize Russian military mismanagement, while some warn Russia could lose. The frontline remains stalled, with an estimated 1.3 million Russian troops dead or wounded, and economic pressure increasing for ordinary Russians. Ukrainian drones and missiles routinely strike targets deep inside Russia, including major cities and oil-loading ports, and have repeatedly burned refineries. Drone attacks have also disrupted airports and flights. Ukraine’s strikes forced Putin to scale back the parade, and Putin proposed a ceasefire around 9 May to avoid humiliation, which Zelenskyy accepted with conditions including a prisoner exchange.

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