"You don't take horses to the Derby, Bob Baffert said this week. 'They take you to the Derby.' Recent events served as another reminder. Barely more than a week ago, Baffert likely would have listed his top Derby candidates as Plutarch, Litmus Test and Brant. Then, on Feb. 25, Baffert revealed Plutarch had a minor setback after his win last month in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita and would not make the Kentucky Derby."
"Each Derby candidate has only one or two chances remaining to earn one of the 20 stalls in the oversized starting gate at Churchill Downs. That means every prep race, including Saturday's San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, takes on added importance as horses run into or out of contention. Others will disappear from the trail because of illness or injury."
"Cherokee Nation, winless in five career starts, ran the fastest mile (1:34.50) in nearly a decade at Santa Anita. It was only a maiden race, but Cherokee Nation won by 10 lengths and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 100. Only one 3-year-old, Fountain of Youth winner Commandment, has a higher figure this year in a race longer than a mile."
With eight weeks until the Kentucky Derby, each remaining prep race becomes crucial for the 20 horses competing for starting positions. Current favorites include Paladin, Commandment, Nearly, Renegade, and Class President, all coming off victories in Louisiana, Florida, and Arkansas. However, the Derby field remains highly unpredictable. Trainer Bob Baffert, a six-time Derby winner, emphasizes that horses determine their own path to the race rather than trainers controlling outcomes. Recent weeks demonstrated this volatility: Plutarch was ruled out due to injury, Litmus Test disappointed in the Rebel Stakes, while Cherokee Nation emerged as a surprise contender after winning a maiden race by 10 lengths with an impressive speed figure.
Read at Los Angeles Times
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