AJW's Three Wishes for Ultrarunning in 2026

"For the past three years, when the calendar is about to flip to a new year, I have shared my predictions for ultrarunning for the year ahead. Looking at the predictions I made for 2023, 2024, and 2025, it's clear to see that they've been a "you win some, you lose some" affair over the years. While successfully predicting no Barkley Marathons finishers and the resurgence of Jim Walmsley in 2025, as well as the increased influence of UTMB and Ironman on the sport in 2023, I failed in my predictions of the creation of a Cocodona 250 Mile lottery for the 2026 event, the growth of mom and pop events, and elite athlete crossover between sports."

"I was struck last month by the special consideration selections (formerly Dale's picks) at the Hardrock 100 lottery. This was the second time that the names of these specially selected runners were made public, and like last year, all six picks went to elite ultrarunners who would likely be in contention for the win. The Hardrock website states, "The intent of these picks is to correct perceived omissions in the lottery, such as a runner that has tried for many years to enter, who has given exceptional service to the [Hardrock 100], or who the RD [run director] thinks will bring added interest to the run." What this signaled to me is that while the Hardrock organizers insist their event is a run, not a race, they nonetheless do pay attention to the pointy end of the field and strive to make it a competitive event."

Predictions for 2023–2025 produced mixed results, with correct forecasts such as no Barkley Marathons finishers, Jim Walmsley's resurgence, and increased UTMB and Ironman influence. Several predictions failed, including a proposed Cocodona 250 Mile lottery for 2026, growth of mom-and-pop events, and elite athlete crossover between sports. The approach shifts from making predictions to articulating wishes for 2026. A central wish proposes a Hardrock 100 Golden Ticket Series that would select three qualifying 100-mile races to channel elite competitors into Hardrock fields. Special consideration selections at Hardrock show organizers already weigh elite-field composition and competitive balance.

Read at iRunFar