New Jersey Is Still a Swing State in the Making

"Now there are many external factors behind what causes campaigns to win or lose that are beyond a campaign's control, for instance a pandemic that shuts down the country and changes the way people cast ballots, an economic recession around the housing market, or the backlash against a party controlling Congress and/or the White House in Washington that pushes forward unpopular bills on issues like healthcare."

"Jack Ciattarelli's campaign for governor wasn't perfect, but he assembled enough votes to win the governorship of New Jersey in any election since 1973-except for 2025. Unlike Winsome Sears, who received more than 200,000 fewer votes than Glenn Youngkin, Ciattarelli received the most votes of any New Jersey Republican running for governor in a half-century. Unfortunately for the GOP candidate, for 1.8 million Jersey residents, his name might as well not have been on the ballot."

"According to exit polls, 65 percent of respondents said that they were angry or dissatisfied with the direction of the country, 41 percent were voting to oppose Trump, and 55 percent said they disapproved of Trump. To Ciattarelli's credit, he won an overwhelming number of voters who said that this election wasn't about Trump-by a near 2-to-1 margin-but it wasn't enough for the army of former Harris voters who said that this election was a referendum on the president."

Campaign planning begins by estimating the electoral universe and forecasting how many votes will be needed to win, drawing on past elections and political enthusiasm. Many external factors beyond campaign control can reshape outcomes, such as pandemics altering voting methods, housing-market recessions, or national backlash against governing parties pushing unpopular legislation. Successful campaigns either localize races to overcome national headwinds or reach target numbers to protect down-ballot contests. Jack Ciattarelli amassed the largest vote total for a New Jersey Republican in fifty years yet lost in 2025 because roughly 1.8 million voters turned out principally to oppose Donald Trump. Exit polls showed widespread anger and explicit anti-Trump voting motivations.

Read at The American Conservative