"2025 was great! I extended my lead over the S&P 500 by quite a bit: A 13.8% beat is pretty great! My compound annual growth rate is 16.2%. I'll take that all day (and life) long. But there are only 4 stocks in my Warren Buffett Bet Portfolio and they're quite volatile. If any one of them take a big hit in the next 2 years, I'll be in trouble."
"During this time period, the S&P 500 is up 192%. So half of my stocks are winning with Google crushing it. Google was down and out for a while because ChatGPT stole its thunder. But look now: I've always liked Google for one simple reason; some of the most brilliant people in the world work there. I wouldn't bet against Demis Hassabis and Jeff Dean."
"I worry about the long-term prospects of this one. Berkshire's top 3 businesses are insurance, trains (BNSF), and energy. All of these business could be disrupted by technology soon. Autonomous cars will be much safer than human driven ones, cutting margins for insurance companies. Autonomous trucking will supplant some of what trains so. Energy is changing fast, although maybe this will be a boon for Berkshire as demand surges."
The experiment began eight years ago with four equally weighted stocks chosen and held without changes. The portfolio has produced a compound annual growth rate of 16.2% and currently leads the S&P 500 by 13.8%. The S&P 500 itself is up 192% over the period. Google delivered the strongest gains, recovering after AI competition and benefiting from top engineering talent. Berkshire Hathaway shows potential long-term risk due to exposure to insurance, rail, and energy amid technological disruption. Amazon’s value centers on AWS. Alibaba appears to have been a questionable pick due to limited familiarity.
Read at 1500 Days to Freedom
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