Is Chris Elmendorf a 'folk economist?' - 48 hills

"Chris Elmendorf-UC Davis law professor, prominent Yimby enabler, and de facto Chronicle staff columnist-is a scourge of economic illiteracy. Usually he trains his contempt on "folk economics" -what he and his colleagues call the economics of "a mass public befuddled by the relationship between housing supply and prices." In an October 30 op-ed for the Chronicle, Elmendorf cast a withering eye on a new target: city planners-specifically the staff of the San Francisco Planning Department."

"The basic problem, he argued, is that the models behind the Family Zoning Plan and the state's own housing framework were devised by planners, which is to say, "crafted without economic expertise.... [T]here is not a single staff economist at the state's housing agency. Nor does the state Legislature have economists vet housing bills." The upshot: "the state tells cities to make realistic plans but doesn't furnish reasonable modeling tools that they may use to evaluate their plans' sufficiency.""

"The report shows that San Francisco will not meet the state's demand that the city zone to "produce"-both Egan and Elmendorf use that term-82,000 homes by 2031. Instead, Egan found that under the best-scenario/high-growth forecast, the upzoning mandated by Lurie's proposed plan is likely to generate only 14,646 additional homes by 2045. Elmendorf warned that by next February, the shortfall could trigger the dreaded Builder's Remedy, which gives developers wide leeway to build whatever they want."

The Family Zoning Plan: Economic Impact Report by SF City Economist Ted Egan finds San Francisco will not meet the state's requirement to zone to produce 82,000 homes by 2031. The analysis estimates that even under the best-case/high-growth scenario, proposed upzoning would yield only 14,646 additional homes by 2045. The shortfall could trigger the Builder's Remedy by next February, allowing developers broad latitude. The planning models and the state's housing framework were created without economic expertise; the state's housing agency lacks a staff economist and the Legislature lacks economists to vet housing bills. The state provides no adequate modeling tools.

Read at 48 hills