"Single-family housing starts ticked up in December, but were down about 7.0% year-over-year in 2025. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), new residential construction is expected to stay relatively flat this year, but could rebound in 2027 if mortgage rates inch lower and pent-up demand enters the housing market. Census data released on Wednesday revealed that single-family housing starts fell about 7.3% last year, but there were wide regional variations."
"Single-family starts fell 8.4% in the South, and 10.7% in the West. Housing starts in the Northeast and Midwest, regions with less population growth, were relatively unchanged. Nationally, new single-family permit authorizations fell about 10.9%. The South, which accounted for 60% of all new authorized permits issued, experienced a 15.4% yearly decline, while permits authorized in the South declined by 6.6%."
"After ramping up speculative construction overaggressively during better-than-expected post-COVID years through 2024, homebuilders in Sun Belt namely, Florida and Texas stuck with an oversupply of standing inventory. The 2025 pullback in new construction is a correction to this supply imbalance. Those market dynamics aren't occurring in Northeastern and Midwestern states that didn't experience the same population shifts during and after the pandemic. These are the states that really didn't see the pandemic shift. So these are the states that were able to withstand the volatility much better, Danushka Nanayakkara, AVP, Forecasting and Analysis at NAHB, said during a session this week at the International Builders' Show (IBS). Multifamily starts in buildings with five units or more were up about 18% in 2025, although Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at NAHB, said that some in the industry question those numbers."
Single-family housing starts were down about 7% year-over-year in 2025 despite a December uptick, with Census data showing a roughly 7.3% decline and notable regional variation. The South and West saw the largest single-family declines, while the Northeast and Midwest remained relatively unchanged. National single-family permit authorizations fell about 10.9%, with the South—responsible for 60% of new permits—posting a double-digit decline. Overaggressive speculative building in Sun Belt states, particularly Florida and Texas, created excess inventory and prompted a 2025 correction. Multifamily starts rose about 18%, though some industry participants question those figures.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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