Last year's flu season was California's worst in years. How bad will this one get?

"Last year's flu season was the worst California had seen in years - and state health officials warn this year could potentially be just as bad. While forecasting disease isn't an exact science, there are some troubling signs. In Asia, the flu has made an early comeback, and quickly swelled to epidemic proportions in Japan and Taiwan. And stateside, some experts are sounding the alarm about continued lower uptake of the flu vaccine. There's also the possibility of a seasonal COVID-19 wave - the likes of which didn't materialize last winter, but had been commonplace since the pandemic - as well as a simultaneous rise in respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV."

"California health officials have previously forecast that this fall-and-winter's respiratory virus season is expected to be similar to last year's. If that's the case, flu would again be the dominant virus fueling hospital admissions compared to COVID-19 and RSV. During the winters of 2022-23 and 2023-24, COVID made up the majority of California hospital admissions caused by respiratory viruses."

"Compared to rates recorded in the summer, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has seen increases in people reporting cough, fever, chills, aches, sore throat and runny nose, officials said, citing a text-based health survey. The test positivity rate for rhinoviruses and enteroviruses, which typically cause the common cold, is 19.87%. That's higher than that of the virus that causes COVID-19, 4.2%; or the flu, 1.04%."

Last year's flu season was the worst California had seen in years and this year could potentially be similarly severe. Early resurgence in Asia has produced epidemic-level flu in Japan and Taiwan. Domestic concerns include lower influenza vaccine uptake and the possibility of a seasonal COVID-19 wave alongside rising RSV. California forecasts this fall-and-winter respiratory season to mirror last year's, with influenza likely to drive more hospital admissions than COVID-19 or RSV if that holds. Current virus levels remain low, but increasing cold-like symptoms and higher rhinovirus/enterovirus positivity signal a ramping respiratory season.

Read at Los Angeles Times