""It's not the case that the cases fall precipitously after [the peak] and that pressures abate quickly. "It's expected that in the weeks following Christmas, ongoing pressures, a plateau of cases largely driven by ongoing socialisation, what we call intergenerational mixing, exposing people who may be more vulnerable to flu. "So even though we feel we've reached the peak of cases, we expect ongoing pressures for the next few weeks.""
""What has happened is the impact of these cases hasn't translated through to the levels of harm we've seen in previous years and that conversion rate of cases out in the community through to people requiring hospitalisation because they're so sick hasn't been as severe and this may well be an indicator of two things. One is the relatively high level of vaccine uptake, particularly in older groups.""
Influenza cases peaked but remain steady, with 1,777 confirmed last week, down from just over 3,500 earlier this month. One hundred eighty-one admitted patients were waiting for hospital beds on Sunday morning. Cases are not expected to fall precipitously after the peak; a plateau driven by socialisation and intergenerational mixing is likely to sustain pressures in the weeks after Christmas. The impact has not translated into the harm levels seen in previous years; fewer severe hospitalisations likely reflect relatively high vaccine uptake in older groups and expanded responses across primary care and hospitals — extra GP clinics, anticipated additional patient visits, senior decision-making and enhanced diagnostics — producing fewer trolleys and reduced severe outcomes.
Read at Irish Independent
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