"Working with colleagues from Dartmouth, the University of Pennsylvania, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Ellen Meara of the Harvard Chan School sought to shed light on the gap in mortality among Americans 25 to 64, which widened from 2.6 years in 1992 to 6.3 years in 2019. The work included close scrutiny of several potential drivers, including "deaths of despair," the changing composition of college graduates, and globalization. The variable that best fits the evidence, the researchers say, is tobacco use: "Smoking emerges as an exceptionally powerful predictor of mortality trends.""
"Previous theories for the midlife mortality gap - deaths of despair, income inequality, education - were accepted by many. Why not you? These explanations had not really been tested. So, we started with three puzzles. One, the education gap in mortality is widening, which other researchers have shown. Two, place matters a lot more than it used to. Our earlier work showed that in 1990, for example, residents of Arkansas, Ohio, and New York could expect pretty much the same lifespan. That has really changed since 1990. Third, also about place, people in rural America now die at significantly higher rates than those in cities and suburbs - a new and growing divide."
Between 1992 and 2019, the midlife mortality gap for ages 25–64 widened from 2.6 to 6.3 years. Multiple potential drivers were examined, including deaths of despair, changing college graduate composition, and globalization. Tobacco use best fits the observed mortality patterns. Smoking stands out as an exceptionally powerful predictor of mortality trends. The education gap in mortality has widened while geographic differences have grown. Rural areas now experience substantially higher midlife death rates than cities and suburbs. College graduates quit smoking rapidly after the 1964 Surgeon General's report, producing more similar lifespans among degree holders across counties.
Read at Harvard Gazette
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