An analysis found that the crime prediction software Geolitica, formerly known as PredPol, used by the Plainfield Police Department, was largely ineffective. Out of over 23,000 predictions logged between February and December 2018, less than 1% accurately predicted crimes. Notably, predictions for robbery and aggravated assault fared poorly, with a 0.6% success rate, while burglary predictions dropped to only 0.1%. Police Captain David Guarino expressed skepticism about the software's utility, stating that the department didn't use it often and could have better spent funds on community programs.
"Why did we get PredPol? I guess we wanted to be more effective when it came to reducing crime. And having a prediction where we should be would help us to do that. I don't know that it did that," said Captain David Guarino of the Plainfield PD.
"I don't believe we really used it that often, if at all. That's why we ended up getting rid of it," said Captain Guarino, reflecting on the software's lack of utility.
"The success rate was less than half a percent. Fewer than 100 of the predictions lined up with a crime in the predicted category that was also later reported to police," highlights the ineffectiveness of the predictive algorithm.
Guarino noted that money spent on the Geolitica software might have been better allocated to community programs, indicating a potential misprioritization of resources by the police department.
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