"One trader has made close to $1 million through Polymarket since 2024 after making dozens of accurate five-figure bets on actions that the U.S. and Israel militaries had taken against Iran."
"According to the outlet's analysis, this user had a 93 percent accuracy rate on military operations that would not be known to the public."
"Typically, when you see wallet-splitting and deliberate attempts to obfuscate identity, it's one of two scenarios: either a very large investor trying to shield their position from market impact, or insider trading."
"Eight newly created Polymarket accounts wagered a total of $70,000 on the possibility of a cease-fire being called in Iran before the end of the month."
The Iran war has caused immense civilian hardship while providing financial gains for anonymous traders on Polymarket. One trader reportedly earned nearly $1 million since 2024 by accurately betting on U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran, achieving a 93 percent accuracy rate. Recently, eight new accounts wagered $70,000 on a potential cease-fire, with a possible $820,000 payoff. Concerns have been raised about the legitimacy of these bets, suggesting possible insider trading or attempts to conceal identity by a single large investor.
Read at Intelligencer
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