"USC looks like a top-tier offense on paper but the main parts are fragile. The Trojans are top five in early-down success rate at more than 50%, which creates rhythm and space, but the moment they miss on first or second down the entire structure drops out. Their average third-down distance is more than seven yards, one of the longest among ranked teams. You can't function against real defense living in third and long that often."
"That's the contrast. When the Trojans are ahead, the offense hums but when they aren't, they become predictable and desperate for bomb plays instead of earning them. Oregon is the wrong opponent for that flaw. The Ducks are near the top in early-down EPA allowed, which means they win the exact downs USC depends on to stay alive. Oregon tackles at a high level, plays clean and shrinks windows USC normally hits."
USC (8-2) and Oregon (9-1) face a pivotal Week 13 matchup with playoff implications for both programs. Oregon enters as the 9.5-point favorite with a money line of -380 and the over/under set at 59.5. USC's offense depends on early-down success, producing rhythm and space, but struggles dramatically when first or second downs are unsuccessful, leading to an average third-down distance over seven yards. Oregon excels at stopping early downs, tackles effectively, and reduces passing windows, which counteracts USC's strengths. Betting consideration: USC team total under 24.5, with 23.5 preferred if available.
Read at ESPN.com
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