Scientists predict global populations could be HALVED by 2064

Earth’s population is about 8.3 billion and could decline rapidly within 40 years if Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity suddenly drops. A worst-case mathematical scenario assumes carrying capacity falls to around two billion people, producing a rapid global population decline with humanity potentially halving by about 2064. The scenario is presented as illustrative rather than a forecast, showing sensitivity of population dynamics to abrupt environmental limits. The model is derived from analysis of 12,000 years of human population growth, reproducing major growth patterns from the Neolithic era to modern times. Current growth patterns are described as relatively stable and not implying imminent collapse, though recent risks make the scenario plausible.

"“We modelled what could happen if major environmental crises abruptly imposed severe carryingcapacity limits on Earth.” “Under a deliberately conservative worstcase assumption that Earth's sustainable carrying capacity suddenly dropped to around two billion people, our model predicts a rapid global population decline, with humanity potentially halving by around the year 2064.”"

"“The researchers maintain that this is not a forecast, but an 'illustrative mathematical scenario' which shows how sensitive population dynamics may be to abrupt changes.” “But with researchers sounding alarm bells about global warming, recent pandemics such as Covid and falling birth rates, the scenario is not completely unrealistic.”"

"“For the study, published in the journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, the researchers analysed 12,000 years of human population growth.” “From this, they were able to devise a mathematical equation that accurately reproduced the major population growth patterns from the Neolithic era to the modern age.”"

"“The model takes into account that in some periods, human population expanded slowly and steadily while in others, growth accelerated explosively.” “Overall, they found the current trajectory remains relatively stable and does not imply imminent collapse.” “But in a 'worstcase illustration' Earth's carrying capacity could plummet to just two billion”"

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