"While FanGraphs figures that the American League is shaping up to be a big ol' Battle Royale between four AL East teams (Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles), the Tigers and the Mariners, the picture in the NL figures to be a bit clearer. As of right now, while the Dodgers are the obvious favorites to not just win the National League but retain their World Series crown yet again, the projection model figures that the Braves have the best shot at dethroning the Southern California juggernaut."
"FanGraphs is currently projecting that the Braves will win 92 games (I'm rounding up and will do so for the rest of the article, when necessary) and lose 71 - giving them a 47 percent chance to reclaim the NL East title, a 39 percent chance to get a bye, a 40 percent shot at a wild card berth and then an 87 percent shot at simply making the Postseason."
"It also goes to show that the model appears to be very impressed with the job that the Braves have done to fortify their bench in order to withstand the losses of both Ha-Seong Kim and Sean Murphy for the initial portion of the season. It also goes to show the faith that the model has in Atlanta's star players performing like stars going forward."
FanGraphs' updated 2026 MLB Playoff Odds show a crowded American League, led by four AL East teams plus the Tigers and Mariners, while the National League appears clearer. The Dodgers are the clear NL favorites and projected top World Series contender. FanGraphs projects the Braves to finish 92-71, with a 47% chance to win the NL East, a 39% chance to earn a bye, a 40% shot at a wild card, and an 87% chance to reach the postseason. The Braves receive an 11% chance to win the World Series, second-best MLB odds behind the Dodgers. The projections credit Atlanta's bench upgrades to offset early absences and indicate confidence in the core players performing at a high level.
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