Why Almost All Signs Point to a Mamdani Victory

"For months, Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani, independent candidate Andrew Cuomo, and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa have crossed the five boroughs to make their case to the voters on why they should be next to lead City Hall. More than 735,000 New Yorkers cast ballots during the early voting period that ended Sunday, and each campaign seems to see that record-setting turnout as a boon to its chances."

"I think Cuomo got a not-insignificant bump in the first couple days from older, wealthier voters in Manhattan, many of whom I guess you would describe as very Zionist and who do not like Mamdani's position on Israel. There were many people I respect who normally never sound the alarm but were genuinely a little spooked by some of that. But Cuomo was never getting the numbers in other parts of the city that he would need to really make this super-close."

"But some of the electorate being a little older, that's of course a consequence of the general election, too. Sliwa's voters, however many there are, they're almost all over 55. The Republican off-year electorate in New York City is super-old. So that also contributed to it. But I never saw a reason for Mamdani to be concerned, really. I thought the only thing that might have been in jeopardy was him hitting 50 percent."

Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo, and Curtis Sliwa campaigned across all five boroughs ahead of the election. More than 735,000 New Yorkers voted early, producing record turnout. Cuomo received an early bump from older, wealthier Manhattan voters who oppose Mamdani's position on Israel. Sliwa’s electorate skewed heavily older, with most supporters over 55, reflecting a traditionally older Republican off-year turnout. Early voting produced a late surge of younger voters, including a notably young day tied to Halloween outreach. The main outstanding question heading into Election Day is whether Mamdani will reach 50 percent rather than simply whether he will win.

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