"1. Prediction: More Buyers Verdict: Mostly Correct (Manhattan), Mixed (Brooklyn) Fall 2024 ended as the most active fall since 2021, with combined Manhattan and Brooklyn contracts up ~23% vs. fall 2023. That set the stage for a stronger 2025, and, early in the year, that's exactly what played out. Manhattan Jan.-Nov. contract activity rose +2.8% year-over-year (YoY) Spring 2025 outperformed spring 2024 Liquidity improved meaningfully in renovated and well-priced segments Brooklyn Jan-Nov contract activity dipped -1.3% YoY Buyers remained active but remain rate-sensitive Competition was more supply-driven than demand-driven"
"The Turning Point: Liberation Day tariffs Momentum stalled abruptly mid-spring after the new tariffs were announced on "Liberation Day." This instantly reintroduced macro uncertainty, paused buyer urgency, and shortened the runway for what had been a strong start to 2025. Takeaway Demand improved, especially in Manhattan, but the surprise tariff shock clipped what otherwise would have been a cleaner continuation of late-2024 momentum."
Late-2024 momentum produced stronger buyer activity into early 2025, with Manhattan contracts rising modestly and Brooklyn lagging. Manhattan Jan.-Nov. contract activity rose 2.8% year-over-year, with spring 2025 outperforming spring 2024 and improved liquidity in renovated and well-priced segments. Brooklyn Jan.-Nov. contracts dipped 1.3% year-over-year, with buyers remaining rate-sensitive and competition driven more by supply than demand. Momentum stalled mid-spring after new tariffs announced on "Liberation Day," which reintroduced macro uncertainty and reduced buyer urgency. New listing activity from January to November tracked typical seasonal averages, with Manhattan new listings up about 4% year-over-year.
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