Trump voters for Mamdani and a new left coalition: the biggest surprises from New York's election

"Two days before the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a big electoral prediction not just of who would win overall, or in each borough or neighborhood, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and polling."

"He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the commie corridor, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the capitalist corridor on Manhattan's Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times in readership and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent."

Two days before the New York mayoral election Michael Lange made block-by-block electoral predictions and published a highly detailed prediction map on his Substack, the Narrative War. The map correctly forecast Zohran Mamdani’s victory but underestimated Andrew Cuomo’s late strength. Lange identified contrasting political corridors: a 'commie corridor' from Park Slope through Bushwick to Astoria where Mamdani won by huge margins, and a 'capitalist corridor' on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides where Cuomo performed well. On election night large batches of ballots shifted margins, but Mamdani expanded his coalition by about 500,000 votes to secure the win.

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