"The core idea of GAR is to measure a player's total impact -- in offense, defense or goaltending -- above what a generic "replacement-level" player might provide at the same position. It also strives to ensure the league's value is better balanced by position, reflecting how top hockey talent actually gets paid: 60% of leaguewide GAR is distributed to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goaltenders."
"Finally, to turn that into a measure of who has been the most productive in recent NHL seasons, I plugged GAR into a system inspired by Bill James' concept of an "Established Level" of performance; in this case, a weighted average of each player's GAR over the past three regular seasons. Specifically, we assign a weight of 3 to 2025-26, 2 to 2024-25 and 1 to 2023-24, then divide by 6 to get each player's overall average."
Adjusted Goals Above Replacement (GAR) measures a player's total impact in offense, defense or goaltending above a replacement-level player, prorated to an 82-game schedule. GAR balances league value by position, allocating 60% to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goaltenders. An Established Level metric weights recent seasons with 3, 2 and 1 for the past three years and divides by 6 to produce an overall average. A safeguard is applied to prevent undervaluing recent risers. The methodology aims to rank NHL players by recent production to identify likely Olympic difference-makers.
Read at ESPN.com
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