"You know exactly what I'm talking about: if an NHL team is in a playoff position by American Thanksgiving (the fourth Thursday in November, this year on the 27th), they will probably make the playoffs. From 2005-06 through last season, 77.1% of NHL teams in a playoff spot on American Thanksgiving made the postseason. That ratio was as spot-on as mathematically possible last season, with six of eight teams in each conference that were in playoff position on Nov. 28 remaining there at season's end."
"Here's why this season could be different: in the last 10 seasons (taking out the season that COVID affected the Thanksgiving mark), the average gap between top and bottom of the East was 20.4 points. In the West, 20.5; that makes the NHL average a 20.45-point gap. If the current eight-point gap in the East as of Monday holds through the next few days, it will be the smallest gap in either conference at American Thanksgiving in the last decade."
"So yes, history will tell us that the 77.1% success number will roughly hold. But given the tight standings in the East, we could be in store for a healthy amount of absolute pandemonium and more juggling around than at a circus -- and let's be real, that would be a lot more entertaining to hockey fans!"
Ken Holland is credited with introducing the "American Thanksgiving playoff position" concept. Teams in a playoff slot by American Thanksgiving made the postseason 77.1% of the time from 2005-06 through last season. Last season six of eight teams in each conference that occupied playoff positions on Nov. 28 remained there at season's end. The ten-season average gap between the top and bottom of playoff positions was roughly 20.45 points. The current eight-point gap in the East would be the smallest in a decade, increasing the likelihood of significant standings volatility and playoff churn.
Read at ESPN.com
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