Logan Thompson's Goalie "Mask"

"It's just as easy (and perhaps more dangerous) to look at their goals-against and assume that they are good enough defensively to be competitive right now. That may or may not be the case. Consider that, on the season, the Caps are sixth-worst in the NHL in expected goals against per 60 at five-on-five per MoneyPuck, clocking in at 2.65 (Vancouver is worst in the League at 2.74). But that off-putting ranking is being masked by a sparkling 2.17 actual goals against rate in those situation, good for fifth-best in the League."

"Of course, last we checked, games were won and lost on the basis of actual goals, not expected goals. But while actual goals can tell the descriptive story of what has happened in the past, expected goals are arguably more important going forward, because regression is a thing."

The Washington Capitals' defensive performance this season appears stronger than underlying metrics suggest. While they rank fifth-best in actual goals-against per 60 at five-on-five, they rank sixth-worst in expected goals-against per 60. This significant gap between actual and expected performance indicates their defense is outperforming statistical models. Expected goals metrics typically predict future performance better than actual results, as regression toward the mean is common in hockey. The Capitals' offense has also struggled, ranking poorly in goals per game across various timeframes. This combination of offensive weakness and potentially unsustainable defensive performance raises questions about the team's competitive viability moving forward.

Read at Japers' Rink