Is Craig Berube showing signs of change? A deep dive into the Maple Leafs' recent improvements

"We've spent a lot of time in the first half of the season discussing the team's five-on-five struggles, head-scratching lineup deployment, power-play issues, and some underwhelming individual performances - namely, Auston Matthews, who until recently was tracking around 75th among forwards in points per game, which is obviously not going to cut it, especially from a player with the second-highest cap hit in the league."

"Last season, from March 1 through to the end of the regular season, the Despite a really good, deep roster, the Leafs owned the sixth-best points percentage in the league en route to winning the Atlantic Division. At the same time, they ranked 25th in five-on-five expected goals and were an unfathomable dead-last in shot attempt share. Leafs were routinely outplayed."

"The team was buoyed by great goaltending, an elite power play (the Leafs were fifth in that time period, clicking at just under 30%), a big veteran defense that made it difficult to penetrate the house, and the team's star power carrying the mail offensively. But it wasn't sustainable. As we've repeated a million times in this space, the Panthers out-attempting the Leafs 25-0 on home ice to start Game 7 was a case of the chickens coming home to roost."

The Maple Leafs reached the season midpoint outside a playoff position and face a tight battle to qualify. The team has struggled five-on-five, with questionable lineup deployment, a shaky power play, and disappointing individual results, notably Auston Matthews, who was recently around 75th among forwards in points per game despite a very large cap hit. Management appears unwilling to replace head coach Craig Berube, so improvement must come internally. Last season's late success masked underlying problems: poor expected-goals and shot-share metrics, supported by strong goaltending and an elite power play, a combination that proved unsustainable in a decisive playoff loss. Offseason moves added depth to the bottom six.

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