Most Stanley Cup-winning teams over the past two decades have relied on at least one elite defenseman. Morgan Rielly experienced a significant decline, dropping from 58 to 41 points and exposing defensive weaknesses that accompany his strengths. Regular-season struggles were compounded by a poor playoff showing against the Florida Panthers, including a 42.82 percent expected goals rate and key goals against in a decisive Game 7. Rielly shares a generally positive playoff reputation with peers, but age and persistent own-zone issues suggest dramatic defensive turnaround is unlikely. Quiet offseason moves make relying on Rielly an elevated risk for Toronto’s Cup hopes.
By just about any standard, Rielly just endured a season to forget. His production slipped from 58 to 41 points, making it tougher to stomach the weaknesses that always come with his strengths. Frankly, you could even ask if Rielly is a clear-cut No.1 defenseman. After all, Jake McCabe averaged slightly more ice time during both the regular season and playoffs.
Generally speaking, Rielly ranks alongside William Nylander as Leafs with good playoff reputations, even inspiring the occasional meme. The wheels really fell off this playoff go-round, though. After an up-and-down series against the Ottawa Senators, the Florida Panthers ripped Rielly and the Leafs apart. Rielly wasn't alone in suffering against the repeat champs, but that doesn't explain away a putrid 42.82 percent expected goals rate.
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