"Fantasy hockey is all about trends and timing, and one of the trickiest patterns to navigate is the mid-career or late-career slump. Understanding which dips are temporary versus true declines can make the difference between holding a player and cutting them too soon. To explore this, we examined historical data going back to 2009-10 to identify players who dropped significantly in fantasy points per game (FPPG) but later returned to their career norms."
"For forwards, there have been 71 times since 2009-10 that a fantasy relevant player (career FPPG of 1.7 or better) has finished a season with an FPPG drop of at least 0.35, only to later recover to their career average in a subsequent season. That's some solid precedent to offer hope to any player currently in a dip for production."
An examination of NHL player data since 2009-10 identified instances where fantasy-relevant players (career FPPG ≥ 1.7) experienced season-to-season drops of at least 0.35 FPPG and later rebounded to career averages. Forwards accounted for 71 such bounce-back campaigns. The 2021-22 season produced 15 recoveries, suggesting unusual external factors that year, while other seasons showed fewer instances. Matt Duchene recorded five separate recoveries and Evgeni Malkin four, with most other players appearing once or twice. The patterns offer precedent for holding struggling players and indicate some slumps are temporary rather than permanent declines.
Read at ESPN.com
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