"Breakouts on the blue line don't always announce themselves the way forwards do. Instead of sudden scoring spikes, defenders can rack up value quietly through ice time, power-play deployment and underlying physical stats that translate to fantasy points. Not every blueliner breaking into the fray is going to be anything close to a Cale Makar, but spotting when a young defender is ready to step into an expanded role can give you a real edge in drafts."
"Last season, our breakout model leaned on age and experience thresholds, but it's now refined to target players likely to make a true fantasy impact, not just fill in for injuries. Using the same approach as with forwards, interquartile ranges for age and experience at first sustained career FPPG above a historical median help us pinpoint blueliners poised to become difference-makers this season."
Breakouts on the blue line often manifest through increased ice time, power-play deployment and underlying physical stats rather than sudden scoring spikes. The breakout model previously leaned on age and experience thresholds and is now refined to target players likely to make true fantasy impacts rather than merely fill in for injuries. Interquartile ranges for age and experience at first sustained career FPPG above a historical median help pinpoint defenders poised to become difference-makers. Across 16 seasons, 281 forwards and 155 defensemen formed the samples, with a 1.89 FPPG breakout threshold. Sixty-eight defensemen sustained that threshold for at least half a season. Average breakout occurred at 24 years, 264 days and 257 games.
Read at ESPN.com
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