Which major NFL trades look better -- worse -- in hindsight? Barnwell's fresh takes on 23 recent swaps

"Evaluating NFL trades is an inexact science. In the moment, we can compare deals to similar ones from the past or look at what the widely held expectations were for a swap, but teams have information and insights that we don't necessarily have on the outside."

"Are a player's medicals concerning? Is he a problem in the locker room? Is there a potential starter waiting to break out on the bench with more opportunities?"

"And while we know the value of draft picks in a vacuum, actually seeing who those selections become can inform what a team really landed in a trade. The team trading away those picks shouldn't care whether the selections turn into stars or scrubs on the other side of the equation, but trading a veteran star for picks certainly feels a lot better when you land a younger, cheaper replacement in the draft and can use some of the financial savings elsewhere on the roster."

"The Seahawks and Cardinals -- who meet Thursday (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video) -- have both been involved in significant trades over the past few years. I'm going to use this matchup as an excuse to take a look back at some of the most notable deals from the recent past. I'm looking at significant moves from 2022 and 2023, since those are recent enough to be relevant and far enough in the past to allow for more meaningful analysis."

Evaluating NFL trades is an inexact science. Comparisons to past deals and pre-trade expectations offer some guidance, but internal team information often changes a trade's value. Medical history, locker-room behavior, and the presence of emerging internal options all materially affect how a trade should be judged. The nominal value of draft picks is clear in isolation, but the eventual players selected determine the real payoff of a deal. Trading a veteran for picks becomes especially valuable when a team lands a younger, cheaper replacement and deploys salary savings to strengthen other roster areas. Recent notable trades from 2022 and 2023 provide useful, timely examples.

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