"This is the week where perception and reality finally split. The last playoff rankings before Championship Weekend will show us which teams the committee actually trusts, and which ones only look alive because the standings haven't caught up yet. Records will mislead you, resumes will confuse you, and the market will contradict both. Several teams have paths, others don't, and a few sit in the gray zone where the odds make no sense."
"The fact that Texas isn't listed on the board is the market saying, "We don't need to price this because the path is effectively dead." The win over undefeated Texas A&M was a statement, but it doesn't erase the full resume. Texas has three losses, including a damaging one to 3-9 Florida and a non-competitive showing against Georgia. Even the rivalry win over Oklahoma came with context, as OU's quarterback was coming off a throwing-hand injury, limiting what the victory really told us."
"BYU isn't a bubble team because their resume sits on the edge and its entire playoff existence hinges on winning a game they're not expected to win. The market has them as a 12.5-point underdog to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship, the clearest indicator that the Cougars' path is narrow, difficult and entirely binary. Their playoff odds mirror that tension."
Perception and reality diverge entering Championship Weekend, with committee trust and market pricing exposing true CFP contenders. Records and resumes can mislead; the market often contradicts standing-based narratives. Texas lacks market pricing for CFP chances, hampered by three losses including an upset by 3-9 Florida and a poor showing versus Georgia, making the committee unlikely to reward a three-loss, non-champion. BYU's playoff fate is binary: a heavy betting underdog in the Big 12 Championship whose path depends on an unlikely win. Several teams occupy gray areas where odds, rankings and résumés conflict.
Read at ESPN.com
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