"Analytics have made NFL football a better sport. I've made some variation of that argument dozens of times in the past, and so have many of my colleagues. Thanks to all the nerdy math nerds crunching the numbers out there, more NFL teams are going for it on fourth down, going for two when they're down eight points ( might be a bad idea), and taking deep play-action shots even when they have a shit running game."
"Probability stats now dominate the life of every sports fan. They're meant to be predictive, but most of the time they're telling you shit that you already know. Oh, the Giants have an infinitesimal chance of losing a game where they're up three scores late? Well, the fact they're up three scores late kinda clues me in on that. I don't need analytics to help me interpret something that a scoreboard, on its own, can make perfectly clear."
Analytics have improved NFL strategy and entertainment, leading teams to more aggressive, expected-value decisions. More teams are going for it on fourth down, attempting two-point conversions when down eight, and taking deep play-action shots despite weak running games. Probability-based win charts are now pervasive and often state the obvious about late-game leads. Many fans do not need win-probability lines to understand game flow because the scoreboard and direct observation provide the same information. Praise is given to coaches who apply analytics in-game, exemplified by Dan Campbell’s willingness to adopt data-driven choices.
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