"The big play has always mattered, but in the past few years, NFL games have become battlefields between teams trying to create and prevent explosive plays. Defenses, tormented by quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, have leaned into Vic Fangio-style philosophies and continued to raise their rates of two-high safety looks, funneling teams toward the run and short passes. Teams played two-deep shells more than 45% of the time on early downs in 2025, up from 38% in 2020 and 35% in 2017."
"The league also changed the rules for preparing K-balls during the week, which has combined with better technique and a generation of stronger-legged kickers to create compressed fields. Even as recently as 15 years ago, NFL teams were punting if their drives were stopped short of the opposing team's 35-yard line. Now they're going for it on fourth down once the ball crosses their own 40, and they're in field goal range when they cross the opposing team's 40."
Defenses have increasingly used two-high safety looks, rising to over 45% of early-down snaps in 2025 from 38% in 2020 and 35% in 2017. Offenses have responded by running more efficiently and taking safer, shorter passing opportunities, with quarterbacks settling for small gains. Teams are more willing to go for it on fourth down, turning third-and-short into a chance for explosive plays while preserving the run on third-and-medium. Kickoff touchbacks moved to the 30-yard line in 2024 and the 35 in 2025, pushing average post-kickoff drives to start 69.3 yards from the end zone. Changes to K-ball preparation, better technique, and stronger-legged kickers have compressed the field, altering fourth-down and field-goal decisions and increasing long-field-goal accuracy.
Read at ESPN.com
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