"Using his proprietary methodology, which include Shadow Reports and Expected Touchdowns, Mike Clay has projected the entire game for you, including a full Super Bowl box score projection. From there, he identified the prop bets whose odds offer the best value based on the probability they'll hit either the over or the under. The best values are presented below in five tiers, from the best to the borderline. Please Note: in the cases where a lean does not match a projection, it is due to the odds being offered for the result. Projections shown are a median of a range of possibilities, which are then evaluated against the implied probability of the odds to identify value."
"Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock Projected score: Seahawks 23, Patriots 21Total Points: 43.7Win probability: Seahawks (56%) Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change. Featured Bets Christian Elliss UNDER 3.5 assists (-163) The Patriots linebacker is averaging 2.8 assists per game this season and has fallen short of four helpers in 12 of his 18 outings. That includes both of his last two games, as he totaled three assists in the two playoff games. He registered one assist against Denver in the AFC championship despite playing a larger role than usual (his 72% snap share was his fourth highest of the season). Seattle has allowed 7.53 assists per game to opposing linebackers, which is seventh lowest in the league."
A proprietary methodology using Shadow Reports and Expected Touchdowns generates full-game projections and a median box score to evaluate prop bet value. Projections are compared to implied probabilities from DraftKings Sportsbook odds to find value, with results ranked in five tiers from best to borderline. The Seahawks are projected to win 23-21 with 43.7 total points and a 56% win probability. Example featured bet: Christian Elliss UNDER 3.5 assists (-163); he averages 2.8 assists per game and has fewer than four assists in 12 of 18 outings, including three assists over two playoff games.
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