NFL divisional round predictions: which No 1 seed is set for an unpleasant shock?

"The Bills converted four of their five third downs with four yards or to go last Sunday, and they finished fifth in third-down rate in the regular season in the same situations. Denver were eighth this season in third-and-short defensive efficiency (50.6%). Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady will have to find ways to create leverage for Allen and the Bills in those vital moments to keep the scoreboard moving."

"Buffalo may struggle to establish the ground game even more against the Broncos: they lost their two best run-blocking receivers toACL tears against the Jags, Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers. Not that the Broncos' rock-solid front needs too much help: they gave away the second-fewest rushing yards per game this season (91). If Allen is forced to throw, Sean Payton's defense can feast. They have the most sacks and the highest rate of QB takedowns (68 at 9.7%) and allow the second-lowest pass completion rate (57.8%)."

"Former Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib, who won a Super Bowl with Denver, is confident: They sending Superman home, he said this week. Key player: Nik Bonitto, edge, Broncos. Bonitto has cemented his status as an elite pass rusher with two brilliant seasons in Denver, earning 13.5 sacks in 2024 and 14 in 2025. He has the power to hustle, harass and help show Allen the door. Prediction: Bills over Broncos."

Buffalo dominates short-yardage situations and converted crucial third-and-short plays, using the tush push to gain needed yards and sustain drives. Denver ranked well in third-and-short defensive efficiency, so Buffalo must create leverage for Josh Allen in those moments. Buffalo's run game may be hindered after losing Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers to ACL tears, reducing run-blocking help. Denver allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game (91) and leads the league in sacks and QB takedowns (68 at 9.7%), while permitting the second-lowest pass completion rate (57.8%). Edge rusher Nik Bonitto produced 13.5 sacks in 2024 and 14 in 2025.

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