"This is my favorite Super Bowl bet, period. When I saw my model's take -- that Diggs had an 88% chance to go under this number -- I assumed I'd made a mistake along the way. So, as a quick baseline check, I went back to see how many times Diggs had gone over that line this season. The answer? One time. He hit 18.7 mph during Week 16. That's it!"
"Ball carrier max speed doesn't have that much to do with how fast a player would run on a track. Instead, it's about the context in which a player is carrying the ball. A straight-line sprint to the end zone? That's when players hit 21 or even 22 mph. But Diggs is not that type of player. He's not typically streaking downfield on a go route, catching a pass past the last defender and running toward the end zone."
Next Gen Stats chips in shoulder pads enable player-tracking data that fuels new prop markets for the Super Bowl. Models built to forecast Next Gen Stats-based categories can reveal betting value when public uncertainty is high. DraftKings Sportsbook lists odds for these props and those odds are subject to change. The Stefon Diggs fastest ball-carry speed UNDER 18.5 mph is highlighted as a strong bet, with a model projecting an 88% chance to go under that number. Diggs exceeded 18.5 mph only once this season, reaching 18.7 mph in Week 16. Ball-carrier max speed depends on play context rather than raw sprint ability.
Read at ESPN.com
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