Inside Sean Payton's fourth-down Broncos-Patriots call

"He finally found the right channel, just in time for the Bears to make a critical decision on their first drive. On fourth-and-two from the Rams 21, they elected to skip a gimme field goal and go for it -- the exact type of call that has dominated playoff professional and college football this season, and can end up winning a tight game or be one of the main reasons for a loss."

"Payton saw the Bears line up on offense, and he squinted. "Kick it," he said. On the play, Caleb Williams was intercepted, costing Chicago three points -- the difference in the final score. "Why are coaches not kicking field goals?" Payton said, turning back to game preparation. That decision for coaches -- when to go for it on fourth-and-short and when to kick -- has become one of the most scrutinized and divisive calls in football, an easy sports talk debate."

"For most of professional football's existence, it wasn't even a decision. Coaches took the points. That started to change in 2002, when a renowned Cal-Berkeley economist named David Romer authored a paper called "It's Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say?" Using the Bellman Equation -- Ei Di(gt) Vi = Pgt + Bgt Ei Di(gt+1) Vi"

Sean Payton watched the Rams-Bears divisional game while preparing for the AFC Championship and noticed the Bears' fourth-and-two decision. The Bears declined a short field goal and attempted a fourth-down conversion; Caleb Williams was intercepted, costing Chicago three points and contributing to the final margin. Payton urged a kick and questioned why coaches increasingly avoid short field goals. For most of professional football history, coaches routinely took the points. That pattern began to shift after 2002, when Cal-Berkeley economist David Romer applied the Bellman Equation to fourth-down decision-making. The change has made fourth-down choices one of the most scrutinized and divisive calls in modern football.

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