"xTD stands for expected touchdowns. It is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. For example, if a player has an xTD of 3.0, it means that a statistically league-average player who saw the same number of carries/targets in the same area of the field would have scored three touchdowns."
"Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast. What is xTD? xTD stands for expected touchdowns."
Expected touchdowns (xTD) measures scoring opportunity by weighting each carry and target according to field location and play context. The statistic converts those opportunities into a single expected touchdown total that represents how many touchdowns a league-average player would have scored with the same looks and field positions. A player with an xTD of 3.0 indicates a league-average player would have scored three touchdowns given identical carries/targets and areas of the field. Key metrics include Looks (carries + targets), TD (actual touchdowns), xTD (expected touchdowns), Diff (xTD minus actual TD), In5 (carries inside opponent's 5-yard line), and EZ (end zone targets).
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