Can the Texans, Broncos and Seahawks prove defense DOES win championships? Here's how each dominates

"I didn't have advanced analytics when I was 8, so I couldn't tell my dad this: Of the 30 teams that made the Super Bowl in the past 15 seasons, 27 had an average offense or better. The league average for points per drive over those 15 years was 1.9; only the 2015 Broncos and 2012 Ravens made the Super Bowl below that mark. The league average for EPA per play was 0.02; only those same two teams and the 2023 Chiefs were worse."

"Defensively, we see more below-average teams. Eleven of those 30 Super Bowl participants were below average in defensive EPA per play; six were below average in points per drive allowed, and another four were bang-on average. In general, teams with elite offenses and average defenses appear late in the postseason, while the opposite -- elite defenses, average offenses -- fail to make it."

"C.J. Stroud and the Texans are playing their best ball; Sam Darnold and Seattle were unstoppable in the first half of the season; Bo Nix and the Broncos have produced spectacular late-game comebacks. But over the regular season, we're looking at offenses ranked 23rd, 10th and 15th, respectively, in EPA per play. They were 22nd, 18th and 10th in points per drive. These are average groups."

Offense has been a stronger predictor of Super Bowl appearances than defense across the past 15 seasons. Of 30 Super Bowl teams, 27 had an average offense or better. The league average for points per drive over that span was 1.9, with only the 2015 Broncos and 2012 Ravens below that mark. The league average for EPA per play was 0.02, with only those two teams and the 2023 Chiefs worse. Eleven Super Bowl participants were below average in defensive EPA per play; six were below average in points per drive allowed; four were at league average. Teams with elite offenses and average defenses tend to advance deep into the postseason, while elite defenses paired with average offenses generally fail to make it. This season, the Texans, Broncos and Seahawks have produced notable stretches yet register as average offenses by EPA and points-per-drive metrics.

Read at ESPN.com