"Early in the season, it's typical to hear a lot about the pace of certain stats. "Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua is on pace for 178 catches and 2,100 yards," that sort of the thing. But most of the time when you see "on pace for" stats, you have no idea of which teams and players were on pace for similar things in the past."
"I do that with DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), explained further here. I've gone back and reran every season since 1978 to see what DVOA would have looked like as of a certain week in the past. Teams are rated solely through four games, and opponent adjustments are based only on opponents through four games. I've written similar pieces in the past, but there aren't many teams playing at a historic level this season. In particular, the best teams are not historically great."
"The Seahawks are a surprising No. 1 in DVOA right now, led by the league's top defense. But they are the No. 32 team since 1978 through four weeks, and they aren't even one of the 100 top defenses. The Bills -- the No. 1 offense this season -- rank 71st among offenses since 1978. What we do have this season are two particularly bad defenses, a weak start for the defending champions and Nacua threatening the receptions record."
DVOA can be computed through four games to compare early-season performance to historical four-game spans since 1978. Teams are rated solely on their first four games, with opponent adjustments limited to those same opponents. Early-season "on pace for" statistics can be misleading because performances usually regress toward the mean over a full season. Few teams this season reach historically exceptional levels through four weeks. The Seahawks lead DVOA but rank only 32nd historically through four weeks, while the Bills' offense ranks 71st. The season features two notably poor defenses, a weak start by the defending champions, and Puka Nacua challenging the receptions record.
Read at ESPN.com
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