"We are through Week 1 of the 2025 NFL regular season, and while the 2026 draft is still months away, it's never too early to take a look at the projected first-round draft order for all 32 teams -- using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Each week during the season, ESPN's FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times."
"1. Tennessee Titans (0-1) Average draft position: 6.6 FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 16.2% FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 55.4% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 80.1% 2. New York Giants (0-1) Average draft position: 7.4 FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 12.4% FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 48.3% FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 74.2%"
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projects the 2026 first-round draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times each week. Game probabilities derive mainly from the model's team ratings and game locations. The draft order is determined by projected records after 17 games and each team's average draft position across simulations. After Week 1, FPI gives the Tennessee Titans the highest chance for the No. 1 pick and lists average draft positions and probabilities for top-five and top-10 selections for the leading teams, including the Giants, Browns, Saints and Panthers.
Read at www.espn.com
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