""When you do the odds compiling, you have a predicted model for how you expect the game to go," said Chris Rasmussen, who teaches sports integrity at the University of New Haven and has spent years investigating sports betting fraud for the World Lotteries Association. Based on the data behind the teams and players in the game, the model expects certain points for those players and predicts "expected behaviors." When real-world betting behavior starts to deviate from the model's prediction, that's when "we are starting to look," Rasmussen explained. "Why does it deviate, and how much does it deviate, and what's going on?""
"The key is to figure out regular betting patterns and deviate within reason. Avoid the outlier stuff, because of course a concentrated set of bets for a few hundred thousand are going to trigger the systems. These people need a data guy. Or maybe the good cheaters already have a data guy, and that's why no one hears about them. See? Math is useful."
NBA players, including Terry Rozier, were arrested in an illegal sports betting probe after associates placed unusual bets tied to his projected performance. Betting markets use predictive models based on team and player data to estimate expected points and behaviors for players. Significant deviations between real betting patterns and model predictions trigger integrity investigations. Large, concentrated wagers are especially likely to activate detection systems. Attempts to avoid detection focus on matching normal betting patterns, and sophisticated manipulators could use data analysts to reduce the chance of triggering alerts.
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