"How much a coach wins or loses is of paramount importance when evaluating their performance, but so is how they did relative to expectations. Win more than oddsmakers projected you would? You should be in line for Coach of the Year consideration. Win less? Research suggests your seat is warming up. (Incidentally, this is why we often see Coach of the Year winners seemingly carry a "curse" in subsequent seasons: One year's surprising overperformance sets the bar of future expectations higher, portending backlash -- and sometimes dismissal -- when they go unmet.)"
"The same applies to new hires. While the jobs they take were generally open for a reason, the question isn't whether they would immediately contend for a championship -- it's whether they could get more out of their rosters than oddsmakers and pundits assumed in the preseason. That's why we leveraged Elo forecasts to rank the seven first-year WNBA coaches by whether they are on pace to lead their teams to more (or fewer) wins than ESPN BET had projected with preseason over/unders. As a bonus, we also highlighted players who have played key roles and are on track to produce more Estimated RAPTOR wins than we would have expected based on their established levels of recent performance. Because, rookie or not, top coaches are the ones who coax the best performances out of their players."
"The favorite to win Coach of the Year, Nakase has done an incredible job molding together the WNBA's first expansion team in 17 years. The initial edition of the Valkyries are not just far more competitive than expected -- their preseason O/U total was a mere 8.5 wins! -- but they have all but assured themselves of a playoff berth, which a first-year club hasn't done since 1997, when every WNBA team was technically in its first season."
Elo forecasts were used to rank seven first-year WNBA coaches by whether they are on pace to lead their teams to more or fewer wins than ESPN BET preseason over/unders projected. Players who have played key roles were highlighted for producing more Estimated RAPTOR wins than expected based on recent performance. Overperforming relative to oddsmakers is a key indicator for Coach of the Year consideration, while underperforming correlates with job insecurity. The Valkyries under Nakase have far exceeded their preseason O/U of 8.5 wins and have nearly locked up a playoff berth, a feat not seen from a first-year club since 1997. Top coaches are defined here as those who coax improved performance from players.
Read at ESPN.com
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