"I know there are a lot of people on Twitter, a lot of Cuomo fans, who think that this race is closing. I want what they're having, he continued. Because if we take a look at the choice for New York City mayor, look, back in September, Mamdani was ahead by 15 points, my aggregate of polls, 45% to 30%. You jump to now, it's basically the same story. If nothing else, Mamdani might have actually gained a point or two."
"Mamdani leads by 17 points right now. I look back at all of the final polling dating all the way back since 1989. The largest final polling average error was 11 points in 2005. Eleven points is way less than 17 points. So at this point, it would take something unprecedented, at least in the last 36 years of New York City mayoral races, for Andrew Cuomo to overcome Mamdani's lead."
Zohran Mamdani holds a sizable lead over Andrew Cuomo in New York City mayoral polling, with a current aggregate near 48% to 31%. The September aggregate showed Mamdani ahead 45% to 30%, so the lead has remained steady and may have increased slightly. The race is not close, and Cuomo is unlikely to be rescued by an older electorate. Historical final polling averages in New York City mayoral races going back to 1989 show the largest final polling average error was 11 points in 2005, far smaller than Mamdani's current 17-point lead. Overcoming this deficit would require an unprecedented polling miss.
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