"Prediction: Brown to win by knockout. Brown's only path to win is by knockout, but good news for him, he's got a good chance to do that. He's got the reach advantage plus some newfound confidence that wasn't there earlier in his career, allowing him to plant his feet, stay in the pocket and throw punches from a range that Bonfim will struggle with. Bonfim needs to close the distance to have a chance, but he'll risk getting knocked out to do that."
"Parker: Brown to win (+150). I don't understand how Brown is an underdog in this matchup. Not only has he fought higher-level competition, but he has more ways to win and has better cardio if the fight goes into the later rounds. Brown has to keep the fight standing, where he will have a striking advantage and a reach advantage. As long as he can avoid getting taken down in the first round, he should be able to get the upset over Bonfim."
Randy Brown and Gabriel Bonfim headline a UFC Fight Night welterweight main event at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas with prelims earlier and broadcast on ESPN+. Brown returns for his second Octagon appearance of the year after scoring a second-round knockout over Nicolas Dalby in April. Bonfim enters on a three-fight winning streak, most recently defeating Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson by split decision in July, and his last loss was a second-round TKO to Dalby in November 2023. Neither fighter is ranked in ESPN's welterweight divisional rankings. Betting lines and analysis favor Brown to win by knockout based on reach, striking advantage, confidence, and superior cardio, with bettors identifying value on Brown.
Read at ESPN.com
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