"The hit from US tariffs has been less than feared when Donald Trump unveiled his so-called "Liberation Day" programme back in April, according to AIB's Economic Outlook Report for November 2025. The initial wave of uncertainty created by the abrupt change in US tariff policy has begun to dissipate, the report says. In August the US and European Union agreed a trade deal, including a so-called 15pc baseline tax on many EU imports to the US."
"Ireland also escaped what could have been a potential hit from Mr Trump's "Big Beautiful Tax Bill", which it had been feared would boost incentives for US multinationals to shift activities from Ireland to the US, AIB chief economist David McNamara said. However, geopolitical uncertainty remains high and because of that consumer spending and business investment growth in Ireland are still expected to cool."
Initial uncertainty from the abrupt change in US tariff policy has begun to dissipate after a US–EU trade deal that included a 15pc baseline tax on many EU imports to the US. Key Irish exports, notably in the pharma sector, largely escaped tariff effects, and several US trade partners did not reciprocate, easing fears of a trade war. Ireland also avoided a major impact from the US "Big Beautiful Tax Bill" that had been expected to incentivise repatriation of multinational activity. Nonetheless, geopolitical uncertainty remains high, prompting stronger household saving and delayed or cancelled business investment, which will slow growth.
Read at Irish Independent
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