Ukraine's security guarantees: What are they and why might they fall short?

"In early January, leaders from more than 30 Western countries gathered in Paris, France, to sketch out a new framework of security guarantees for Ukraine that would take effect if a ceasefire with Russia were to be agreed. The so-called coalition of the willing issued declarations of intent, including plans for a United States-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism and the possible deployment of multinational forces led by France and the United Kingdom, to ensure Ukraine's defence and deter future aggression."

"French President Emmanuel Macron called the guarantees robust, while British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in the event of a deal, the UK and France will establish military hubs across Ukraine and build protected facilities for weapons and military equipment to support Ukraine's defensive needs. Others were more cautious. Chancellor Friedrich Merz said German forces could join the initiative to monitor a ceasefire, but would be based in a neighbouring country."

"On Sunday, while on a visit to Lithuania, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the government was 100 percent ready to send an agreement on security guarantees to the US Congress and Ukrainian Parliament for ratification. For us, security guarantees are first and foremost guarantees of security from the United States. The document is 100 percent ready, and we are waiting for our partners to confirm the date and place when we will sign it, Zelenskyy told a news conference in Vilnius."

More than 30 Western countries met in Paris to outline a framework of security guarantees for Ukraine that would activate if a ceasefire with Russia is agreed. The coalition proposed a United States-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism and potential multinational forces led by France and the United Kingdom to deter future aggression and bolster Ukraine's defence. Plans include establishment of military hubs across Ukraine and protected facilities for weapons and equipment to support defensive needs, while some partners prefer monitoring forces based in neighbouring countries. Ukraine states a finalized guarantees document is ready for ratification, but it remains unpublished and enforcement mechanisms are unresolved, leaving many Ukrainians uncertain about their safety.

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