The Ukraine Peace Process Is Moving Quite Fast

"The Ukraine peace process is now moving as fast as can reasonably be expected. Only two months ago, all sides were still locked in positions that gave no chance at all of progress. Russia was demanding complete Ukrainian withdrawal from all the four provinces it claims to have annexed, and a bar on all Western arms supplies to Ukraine-things that neither Ukraine nor Western governments could possibly accept."

"The Trump administration and the Kyiv and European governments were demanding a prior ceasefire before beginning talks on an agreement-something that Moscow has made clear for months that it would not accept, since Russian advances on the ground are by far the most important leverage that Russia can bring to bear in talks (just as the Ukrainians rejected a ceasefire when they thought they were winning)."

"Of course, major obstacles remain. Of these, the greatest from Ukraine's point of view is probably the continued Russian demand for Ukrainian military withdrawal from the approximately 30 percent of Donetsk region that Ukraine still holds. It would be appallingly difficult for any Ukrainian government to agree voluntarily to withdraw from this land, given the number of Ukrainian lives sacrificed to hold it, and the effort put into fortifying the Ukrainian front line."

Negotiations are advancing after previous immovable positions that precluded progress. Russia demanded full Ukrainian withdrawal from four annexed provinces and a ban on Western arms, demands unacceptable to Ukraine and Western governments. The United States, Kyiv, and European governments insisted on a prior ceasefire before talks, a condition Moscow rejected because battlefield advances supply Russia’s main leverage. The largest Ukrainian obstacle is Russia’s insistence on withdrawal from roughly 30 percent of Donetsk that Ukraine still holds, a concession unlikely given lives lost and fortified defenses and liable to provoke political collapse unless the army has been defeated. NATO membership, Western security guarantees, and arms supplies remain decisions for the United States and European governments.

Read at The Nation