"For nearly four years, Russia has attempted to present its invasion of Ukraine as an unstoppable force, a slow, grinding inevitability driven by size, manpower, and brute force. That narrative no longer holds. The war has entered a new phase, one defined not by Russian momentum but by Ukrainian initiative. I say new, but those of us in Ukraine have seen this shift for some time."
"Ukraine is now launching drones and ballistic strikes into Russia almost daily. Russian military infrastructure, energy facilities, logistics hubs, and ports are routinely hit, and this week, Ukraine crossed another psychological and operational threshold: the reported disabling of a Russian Kilo-class submarine in Novorossiysk. Whether Moscow chooses to admit it or not, the strategic balance has shifted. This is no longer a war in which Ukraine merely reacts. It is shaping the battlespace, inside Russia itself. Not bad for a country with "no cards.""
"When Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion in February 2022, the objectives were clear, publicly stated, and widely broadcast. Kyiv was to fall. Ukraine was to be "demilitarised" and "denazified." The government would be replaced or neutralised. NATO influence would be rolled back. Ukraine would cease to exist as an independent strategic actor. None of those objectives have been achieved. Kyiv did not fall."
The conflict has shifted from perceived Russian momentum to active Ukrainian initiative. Ukrainian forces now conduct near-daily drone and ballistic strikes into Russian territory, targeting military infrastructure, energy facilities, logistics hubs, and ports. Reports indicate a Russian Kilo-class submarine in Novorossiysk was disabled, signaling a psychological and operational threshold. Initial Russian objectives to seize Kyiv, demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, neutralise its government, and roll back NATO influence have not been achieved. Ukraine is increasingly shaping the battlespace inside Russia, demonstrating offensive capability and changing the strategic balance despite earlier assessments of limited options.
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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