"The great imponderable is the turnout. A series of factors have combined to generate a sense it will be low. Some of the reasons are seasonal. At the start of a bank holiday weekend and mid-term break, the airports will be full of passengers heading away. The weather is also pretty miserable, which never helps. But most of the elements relate to the presidential election itself."
"The polling leads to a sense of foregone conclusion that the result is already known, making voters feel their paper doesn't matter. Gavin dropping out of the race means there is little incentive for Fianna Fáil loyalists to vote. But the low number of candidates will also influence the turnout. Spoiling votes is nothing new in a presidential election The decision of elected politicians at local and national level not to facilitate Independent candidates means there is not a wide range of choice on offer."
Catherine Connolly, an Independent TD backed by a left-wing alliance, leads substantially in opinion polls. Heather Humphreys, the former Fine Gael minister, trails and is unlikely to overtake Connolly. Jim Gavin has withdrawn but remains on the ballot, making his victory technically possible but highly improbable. The turnout is the principal uncertainty, with factors such as a bank-holiday weekend, mid-term break travel, and poor weather expected to reduce participation. Perceptions of a foregone conclusion and fewer candidates following political decisions limit voter incentives. Social conservatives are urging spoiling of ballots, but only valid papers with clear preferences will affect the result.
Read at Irish Independent
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