"The Office for National Statistics has admitted that it has discovered an error in the way it produces seasonally adjusted British retail sales data. The blunder relates to the treatment of calendar effects, such as the timing of Easter (which moves between March and April), and to the way that its default data collection periods are aligned to calendar months."
"This error forced the ONS to delay the release of the retail sales data they were initially due two weeks ago. The ONS, which insists seasonal adjustment is important, reveals that the treatment of these holiday effects and phase shift effects were not properly accounted for between January and May this year. The corrections mean that retail sales were actually lower than previously recorded in January, February, April and June, this chart from the ONS shows: Photograph: ONS"
"These errors are another embarrassment to the Office for National Statistics; back in June, a report exposed deep-seated issues at the statistics body, which has been struggling to produce data on the state of the labour market too. Today's data also shows that the volume of goods bought by shoppers fell by 0.6% in the three months to July 2025 when compared with the three months to April 2025."
The Office for National Statistics admitted an error in the seasonal adjustment of retail sales data tied to calendar effects and alignment of default collection periods to calendar months. The issue involved treatment of holiday and phase-shift effects and arose from seasonal adjustment by calendar month instead of trading month (the 4-4-5 split). The error delayed the retail sales release and corrections show lower sales in January, February, April and June. The ONS plans to switch to calendar month collection by the end of 2026. Retail volumes fell 0.6% in the three months to July, while July alone rose 0.6%.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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