The United States raised tariffs on Swiss imports to 39 percent effective August 1, up from a 10 percent baseline. SECO projects slower economic growth for Switzerland, revising estimates to 1.2 percent this year and 0.8 percent next year, down from earlier forecasts. No severe recession is currently expected, but certain sectors and companies could face significant impacts. Export-heavy industries at risk include watchmaking, industrial machinery, chocolate and cheese. Swiss businesses worry competitors with lower US tariff rates will gain an edge, while Bern notes a US services trade surplus and tariff-free entry for most US industrial goods.
"An updated economic scenario from SECO shows that, as a result of higher US import tariffs, the Swiss economy is likely to grow more slowly than previously expected, particularly in 2026," it said in a statement. In its June forecast, the Swiss government's expert group on business cycles projected significantly below-average growth for the Swiss economy: 1.3 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year.
"With the introduction of higher US tariffs on imports from Switzerland at the beginning of August, the outlook has worsened further," SECO said. In its updated economic scenario, SECO is eyeing growth of 1.2 percent this year and 0.8 percent next year. "A severe recession is not currently expected. However, the economic impact could be significant for certain sectors and companies," it said.
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