"Russian aircraft, drones and missiles have violated NATO airspace dozens of times since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Individually, many of these incidents appear minor: a drone crash here, a brief fighter incursion there, a missile discovered only after the fact. But taken together, I believe the numbers tell a far more troubling story. To get a full picture of the scale of violations, I conducted a systematic review of Russian airspace violations against NATO members from 2022 through the end of 2025."
"It reveals not just an increase but a sharp acceleration accompanied by rising severity and widening geographic scope. In 2025 alone, NATO members recorded 18 confirmed Russian airspace violations - three times as many as in 2024 and more than half of all incidents recorded over the four-year period. This was not a gradual escalation; it was a dramatic change."
A systematic review of international media, NATO press releases, and Institute for the Study of War geospatial reporting identifies Russian aircraft, drone, and missile incursions into NATO airspace from 2022 through 2025. Annual incidents rose from four in 2022 to five in 2023 and six in 2024, then jumped to 18 in 2025, a 200% year-on-year increase. Violations included drones heavily suspected to be Russian when confirmation was not absolute. The pattern shows accelerating frequency, increasing severity, and expanding geographic scope, with the pace continuing into early 2026 with at least two violations by Feb. 18.
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