Jeromin Zettelmeyer: If the US continues to exercise coercive leadership, Europe will move to the non-aligned bloc'

"It will never be in China's bloc, but it will not necessarily be in the U.S. bloc either. If Washington continues to exercise coercive leadership, we will end up in the non-aligned camp, alongside India and most developing countries. It depends on the U.S, the economist said during a recent trip to Madrid to celebrate Bruegel's 20th anniversary."

"The most notable development so far has been the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting, with its strong symbolic weight of seeing Indian leader Narendra Modi alongside Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong-un. This does not establish an alliance, but it is concerning. Although India will remain in the non-aligned camp, it continues to have border disputes with China and has not developed a manufacturing base that would allow it to compete with Beijing."

"In the case of Africa and Latin America, some countries have significant ties to China through the Belt and Road Initiative, but others have been negatively impacted, such as Ecuador, Peru, and Suriname. These countries may be compelled to reduce their dependence on the U.S., given the experience with free trade agreements in the region, but this doesn't directly push them into China's camp, whose main unifying factor is opposition to the West. Most countries are not in that position."

Global geopolitics faces a three-bloc risk driven by U.S.-China rivalry. Europe is unlikely to join China’s bloc but may also avoid full alignment with the U.S. if Washington adopts coercive leadership, increasing the chance of European non-alignment alongside India and many developing countries. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting carried strong symbolic weight by bringing India together with China, Russia, and North Korea, raising concerns despite India’s continued non-alignment and unresolved border disputes with China. African and Latin American ties to China via Belt and Road vary, producing both strong links and negative economic impacts. NATO cohesion will signal Europe’s likely alignment.

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